By Lucien Morell

JAKARTA, Indonesia: An arms race is quietly gathering pace in Southeast Asia, and its latest catalyst is parked on the soil of East Kalimantan.

With the induction of the Turkish-made KHAN tactical ballistic missile system, designated locally as the ITBM-600, Indonesia has shattered a long-standing regional taboo. For decades, ASEAN member states tacitly agreed to keep ballistic missiles out of their active arsenals. Jakarta’s move to deploy these weapons, combined with its recent high-profile purchase of India’s supersonic **BrahMos anti-ship missiles** in July 2026, signals a dramatic shift in Southeast Asian military doctrine.

For regional observers, this sudden escalation in offensive capabilities carries a deeply unsettling sense of precedent. In the 1960s, Malaysia was forced to face the "Konfrontasi" (Confrontation), a period of intense, undeclared conflict initiated by an expansionist Indonesian administration opposed to the creation of the Malaysian federation. Today, some elements within Indonesia's strategic establishment seem determined to revive this aggressive, old mindset, systematically setting what has been until now a peaceful region on a highly dangerous path of interstate conflict.

To outside observers, this is no longer a purely defensive posture. Indonesia is systematically building a formidable Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) umbrella. If left unchecked, this strategy risks turning the vital Malacca Strait into a geopolitically choked highway, reminiscent of Iran's iron grip on the Strait of Hormuz.

The Reach of the ITBM-600

Historically, Indonesia’s military strategy focused on internal security and localized coastal defence. The ITBM-600 changes the equation entirely.

Manufactured by Turkey’s Roketsan, the KHAN is a heavy, road-mobile ballistic missile carrying a 470-kilogram high-explosive warhead. While its official export range is capped at 280 kilometres to comply with the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), its operational footprint is highly elastic. If deployed on the coastal edges of the Riau Islands or Sumatra, these high-precision missiles (boasting a sub-10-metre accuracy) could easily hold high-value targets in Singapore, Johor, and Kuala Lumpur at risk.

By pairing these land-based ballistic missiles with highly lethal BrahMos coastal batteries, Jakarta has acquired the capability to close the southern gates of the Malacca Strait at a moment’s notice.

A Revanchist Shadow Over the Malacca Strait

For Malaysia and Singapore, this massive military build-up is deeply unsettling. The Malacca Strait is the lifeblood of global trade; more than a quarter of the world’s commerce and the vast majority of East Asia's energy supplies flow through this narrow channel.

Indonesia’s strategic posturing begins to look less like regional deterrence and more like a revanchist policy aimed at securing unilateral leverage over its maritime neighbours. If Jakarta establishes unchallenged local superiority, the economic and sovereign independence of surrounding ASEAN states will be fundamentally compromised. A militarised chokepoint threatens the free flow of critical food, energy, and commodities that keep Malaysia and Singapore running.

The Asymmetric Counter: Kamikaze Boats and Loitering Munitions

Faced with Indonesia's massive demographic and economic advantages, Malaysia and Singapore cannot hope to match Jakarta hull-for-hull or jet-for-jet in a conventional arms race. Instead, they must look to the lessons of modern conflict zones.

In Ukraine, the Black Sea, and the Red Sea, asymmetric warfare has completely redefined maritime denial. Cheap, expendable, and highly effective systems have successfully held massive naval assets at bay:

*Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs): Highly explosive "kamikaze" drone boats, similar to those deployed effectively by Ukraine against Russia's Black Sea Fleet, could be utilized to interdict shipping and threaten coastal staging areas.

*Long-Range Loitering Munitions: Low-cost drone swarms, modeled on the highly prolific Iranian Shahed and Russian Geran series, offer an affordable method to saturate and overwhelm expensive air defence systems.

For Malaysia and Singapore, developing a robust, domestic inventory of these drone systems is not just an innovative alternative; it is a strategic necessity to offset Indonesia’s conventional superiority and any potential revival of past expansionist designs.

The Case for Sovereign Missile Deterrence

Relying solely on drones, however, is not enough. To truly balance the scales and prevent coercion, Malaysia and Singapore must establish their own credible second-strike capabilities.

Both nations would be well-advised to invest in their own short- and medium-range ballistic missile systems. Gram for gram, land-based precision missiles are far more cost-effective than acquiring and maintaining multi-billion-dollar fighter fleets or vulnerable surface combatants. A mobile missile launcher hidden in the jungles of Malaysia or the urban density of Singapore represents an incredibly survivable deterrent.

If ASEAN’s traditional diplomatic norms can no longer prevent the proliferation of offensive ballistic systems, then deterrence must be restored through balance. For Malaysia and Singapore, the message is clear: to keep the peace in the Malacca Strait, they must prepare for the asymmetric realities of modern warfare.

*Lucien Morell is a Southeast Asia based geopolitical observer and analyst.*