By Collins Chong Yew Keat

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia: The strategic move and threat to restart the nuclear test is a strategic calculation by U.S. President Donald Trump, in response to Russian President Putin’s nuclear-powered delivery platform tests.

It is to reassert U.S. credibility, restore the needed hard power deterrence and maintain his own personal legacy of fighting back hard on a threat with an even greater threat, forcing the other side to back down.

By ordering the military to resume nuclear testing after a 33-year moratorium, Trump sends a clear and loud signal: the U.S. is no longer willing to remain passively constrained while Russia and China  steadily advance their nuclear posture unchecked. Conventional approaches of the past by Washington will most certainly refrain from further sabre rattling and sudden moves, but never with Trump. 

This approach bolsters deterrence: if your adversary is in doubt of your willingness to act, your whole nuclear posture becomes weaker and obsolete.

Trump’s move restores that perceived willingness, and maintains the high stakes readiness by Trump to put everything on the table, to set a clear cost  and a red line. 

This model remains a highly effective tool by Trump in the past, especially in reining in North Korea’s President Jong-un during his first term. This enabled Trump to settle the dangerous mess left behind by Obama.

When Russia withdrew from the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and China modernised its nuclear test-site activity, the U.S. lost leverage and efficacy and effective deterrence by remaining the only major power still strictly bound by a moratorium. 

While the U.S. never ratified the CTBT, in reality, Russia’s withdrawal was a signal of intent to restore full testing capability and to keep its deterrent options.

The U.S. last conducted a full-scale nuclear test in 1992, and although it never ratified the CTBT, it has observed a voluntary moratorium for over 30 years. The U.S. remains politically and normatively constrained.

Trump’s decision changes the calculus deeply: the U.S. is now signalling it has options and is willing to impose costs.

By doing so, he strengthens Washington's position in future arms-control or strategic-stability negotiations.

This nuclear test is a smart strategic move in addressing two adversaries at once, rather than just one. The timing of the announcement is also meant as a message and warning to Beijing: do not ever threaten us with nuclear capabilities.

Beijing is on course to have up to 1,000 nuclear warheads by the end of this decade. Trump doesn’t just focus on Russia’s nuclear threat, he has China’s rising nuclear ambitions right in mind. 

This broadens the strategic message: Trump is not splitting his effort, but treating the nuclear challenge as multi-front capacity where the U.S. is capable to address at once,  which  complicates adversary calculus by enemies.

The planned resumption of the nuclear test after decades long hiatus will not weaken the U.S. momentum and capacity, it  has decades of nuclear-test data, infrastructure, and modelling experience inherited from the Cold War.

The cost of crossing this threshold is relatively lower for the U.S., and the deterrent effect is relatively higher, which is a hallmark of smart strategy.

Trump’s move is a strategic approach in creating this dilemma where if the U.S. announces it will test  and then either do it or be seen as preparing to execute it, Russia or China might face a tough choice where they can either respond by reciprocating the tests which will provoke backlash and negative sentiments, or they choose not to respond (which implicitly acknowledges U.S. superiority and holding the first shield advantage).

This remains a brilliant and classic unorthodox move by Trump as it forces the other side to show their hand and whichever way it goes, Washington gets the final card.

By sending a public signal that the U.S. is ready to act, Trump also reassures allies that the nuclear guarantee is not only in theory or practice, but backed by visible will and  intent, which strengthens U.S. strategic posture. This matters a lot to allies in this region especially for Tokyo, Seoul and Canberra.

By restarting testing, Trump re-invigorates U.S. deterrence credibility, forces adversaries to respond on U.S. terms, keeps allies engaged, and addresses both Russia and China in a single stroke. This is pure brilliance from Trump, in a typical Trumpian move which bolsters deterrence.  

Right from the heels of U.S. Sectary of War Pete Hegseth sounding off China for its expansive claims in the South China Sea during the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting in Kuala Lumpur. Hegseth posted the common understanding that relations with China are good and that both will set up military to military channels.

This appears to some as being seen as backing down from a tough rhetoric on Beijing and the need to appease China and the pro-China camp in the establishment in Washington, seeing how a managed competition is better than a lopsided one fuelled by antagonising intent.

However, this is not lessening the chips and cards of Washington or showing its hands.  

The new brief overture of positive overtone is setting up the stage to strengthen the narrative and moral compass of the U.S. in being seen as the force of good and force for good, in capitalising on the renewed trust and confidence by the region in embracing the return of the U.S. stabilising power and assurance to the region. 

By taking the moral high ground based on goodwill and the readiness to defend the rules-based order, this establishment of better managed military to military communications is meant to prevent miscalculation and misjudgement, but the U.S. power has never been at stake in the first place.

In any case, this move is brilliant, in setting the first tone and tunes to show goodwill which will force Beijing to conform to the narrative and setting of playing by the rules, where future bellicose actions by Beijing will then be deemed as provocative and being seen as the coercive power. The U.S. retains the higher card in either scenario.

The nuclear restart move has already taken Beijing and Moscow by surprise, and Trump retains the strategic leverage over both, all while riding high on the momentum of a refreshed to the Indo-Pacific and securing strategic critical minerals deals with Australia, Malaysia and Japan, thus consolidating the U.S. strategic power positioning with newfound regional support and alignment. 

*Collins Chong Yew Keat is a foreign affairs and strategy analyst and author in University of Malaya.*