By Lucien Morell

JAKARTA, Indonesia: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) finds itself at a critical juncture. Once seen as a model for regional cooperation, ASEAN today appears to be struggling with its own contradictions. 

It has yet to demonstrate the unity and resolve expected of a regional bloc representing over 650 million people. On matters such as the South China Sea, member states continue to take diverging positions, often influenced by their own bilateral relationships with major powers. 

This lack of cohesion undermines the very foundation of ASEAN’s credibility and limits its ability to act as a stabilising force in the region.

Similarly, ASEAN has shown little ability to respond collectively to major external challenges such as United States tariffs and global supply chain disruptions. 

While individual nations scramble to secure their own economic interests, there is no coherent regional strategy that defends Southeast Asia’s collective position. 

The result is a patchwork of policy responses rather than a unified economic front. This fragmentation weakens ASEAN’s ability to negotiate effectively and exposes its members to greater manipulation by external powers seeking to divide and influence the region for their own ends.

Internal disputes have further eroded confidence in ASEAN’s effectiveness. The organisation was unable to mediate successfully during the Thai-Cambodian border conflict and required outside involvement to prevent escalation. 

Such dependence on external mediation undermines ASEAN’s claim to regional centrality. Even worse, the bloc’s handling of the Myanmar crisis has raised questions about its consistency and principles. 

While ASEAN repeatedly insists on the doctrine of non-interference, it has pressured Myanmar for being “undemocratic”, thereby contradicting its own founding philosophy. 

This inconsistency damages ASEAN’s reputation as a neutral platform and raises doubts about whether it can manage internal issues without succumbing to political pressure from abroad.

For all its talk of unity, ASEAN still lacks effective leadership. Decisions are often the product of prolonged deliberation rather than decisive action. The group’s consensus-based model, once praised for ensuring inclusivity, has become a double-edged sword that hinders timely responses. 

Major powers such as China and the United States exploit these divisions, engaging member states bilaterally to secure their own strategic footholds. The result is an ASEAN that appears passive, content to issue statements while the geopolitical landscape around it changes dramatically.

The achievements of the past, including the ASEAN Free Trade Area and the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, are beginning to lose their shine. 

The sense of purpose and collective ambition that once defined the bloc is being overshadowed by great power rivalry. The Asia-Pacific is rapidly militarising, and ASEAN risks being reduced to a mere observer in its own backyard. 

Unless the organisation reinvigorates itself, it may become a platform for endless dialogue with little tangible impact on the region’s future.

To avoid this fate, ASEAN must redefine its narrative. The time has come for it to stop framing its choices as a matter of “leaning” towards either China or the United States. Such thinking only reinforces dependency and weakens its strategic autonomy. 

Instead, ASEAN should focus on building internal strength through genuine capacity building, joint defence initiatives, and regional industrial collaboration.

Southeast Asia has the resources, the talent, and the economic potential to stand on its own. What it lacks is the political will to transform rhetoric into action.

The region’s future stability depends on ASEAN’s ability to evolve from a diplomatic talk shop into a capable, self-reliant institution. Real leadership means not only issuing declarations but implementing them, even when consensus is difficult. 

If ASEAN continues to drift without a clear direction, it will lose its central role in shaping the regional order and allow external powers to dictate the terms of engagement.

ASEAN’s founders envisioned a community that could safeguard Southeast Asia’s independence and prosperity. That vision remains relevant, but it demands courage and clarity of purpose. 

The world is changing, and ASEAN can no longer afford complacency. It must act now to reclaim its agency and prove that it is more than just a forum for words.

*Lucien Morell is a Southeast Asia based geopolitical observer and analyst.*