Source Murray Hunter

BANGKOK, Thailand: Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s visit with his entourage to meet with Russian President Putin in the Kremlin had the optics of the "jago kampong" (village hero) coming to town. This visit was intended to be perceived as one stateman meeting another.

However, the meeting just exposed Anwar’s ignorance of history and culture, contrary to the mythology of Anwar being a learned man. One could clearly see the bemusement of Putin on his face.

Anwar’s recent interview with hardline journalist Mary Ann Jolley on Al Jazeera exposed him as a tyrant in the same class as some of the most notable despots of the region over the last century. One could see Anwar’s anger rise when he got caught in a ‘got you’ moment during the interview, where he replied to Mary Ann whether she wanted a democrat or a dictator. Any sense of ‘Reformasi’ for Malaysia under Anwar died with the interview.

The current campaign for the deputy presidency of PKR is highlighting yet another dangerous rift in the party. If there was no contest for the deputy president, the rift and discontent within the party would be plastered over, so at least the public could not directly see. Nurul Izzah Anwar’s nomination for deputy president is exposing all the dirty linen in PKR to the public.

It’s not about nepotism, but ignoring the old adage made famous in The Godfather Part II “keep your friends close and your enemies closer”. This was totally ignored by Anwar, who acted out of emotion, rather than cold deliberate strategy. If PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli loses his post, which is most likely, he will be free to criticise, especially if he makes good on his promise to resign as minister. The potential damage for this wasn’t taken into account in the move against Rafizi. Anwar is by no means a strategist.

PKR lost 16 seats in the last general election, and now stands with 31 in the Dewan Rakyat. Notable people who lost their seats in GE15 included Saifuddin Nasution Ismail (who was appointed a senator to become home minister), Fuziah Salleh (who was appointed a senator to become a deputy minister of domestic trade), and Nurul Izzah who is now running for the position as deputy president of PKR.

The next deputy president of PKR will have a heavy responsibility to rebuild the party quickly to prevent a possible wipe-out in the next general election.

Come the next general election, where are these politicians going to find winnable seats? Rumour has it that Anwar wants to recontest his old seat of Permatang Pauh, which could be winnable, if enough former BN voters support PKR. This could be a very dangerous assumption to make.

There is an expectation that PKR will lose a number of seats in GE16. This may be in contrast to UMNO which may pick up a number of the 28 seats it lost in the last general election. UMNO strategists are confident of this and have conspicuously distancing themselves from Anwar’s leadership.

UMNO is going along as a supporter of the ‘unity government’, but not a strong supporter of Anwar, the man. In the next general election, with no opposition from Pakatan Harapan in the individual seats UMNO contests, UMNO should do well. In seats PH will run in, there will not be the same cross support for PH from UMNO voters that PH strategists hope for.

There is a strong possibility that UMNO may win more seats than Bersatu. This would make UMNO the second largest Malay-centric party to PAS in the next Dewan Rakyat. UMNO will certainly be a larger party than PKR and what is left of Amanah.

After GE16 Zahid will be the kingmaker once again

The coming general election could be great for Zahid. First, Zahid will increase his winning margin of his seat of Bagan Datuk, which he only won by 348 votes in GE15. With the exception of DAP, UMNO could be the largest party in the ‘unity government’, putting up a good case for him to become prime minister. If the idea of Zahid becoming prime minister is rejected by Anwar, Zahid could look for a deal with Perikatan Nasional.

The talk is that Zahid is tired of being DPM and wants a chance at the top job. If there is a hung parliament once again, Zahid will be a potential kingmaker and could deal himself into the job.

Perikatan Nasional, with UMNO may only need the support of one of the east Malaysian states to form a simple majority.

In GE16, its won’t be the election that is important, it will be the bargaining and negotiation after another hung parliament. There are a lot of dynamics not mentioned here. The important things is that Anwar being an incumbent prime minister may not carry the weight he thinks it will. Muhyiddin Yassin could tell Anwar about this.

Under such a scenario, and this is not the only one, Zahid could become PMXI. Zahid has been a deputy prime minister for too long.