
By Collins Chong Yew Keat
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia: South Korea is seeing a change of the presidency three times in less than a month, as the ongoing political turmoil in the Asia’s fourth-largest economy threatened to plunge the region further into economic and political uncertainties.
The opposition Democratic Party (DP) that controlled the parliament decided to impeach Han after it deemed him to be yet another Suk-Yeoul’s puppet for failing to appoint three justices to fill vacancies that the DP backs at the constitutional court.
At least six judges on the constitutional court must uphold Suk Yeoul’s impeachment to remove him from office.
This new turmoil brings historical learnings and perspectives into South Korea’s colourful past.
Decades ago, iron-fisted leaders seized power and maintained it through force, but the country has since transitioned into a matured and stable democracy, where into a stable, but sometimes raucous, democracy. Since the democratic embrace in 1987, a new social transformation is seen through the lenses of capitalism and democratic overtures. Most citizens now are determined to not go back to such times, where martial law evokes painful memories of past abuses.
Suk Yeol has defended his martial law declaration as legal and aimed at tackling “anti-state forces”, but he is already deeply unpopular before declaring martial law with a sagging economy and constant wariness surrounding his competency and his wife’s Dior bag controversy and , he now faces a huge challenge in ever winning the confidence of an angry public. Polling data released by Gallup Korea showed that Suk-Yeol's approval rating fell to 16% this week after he declared martial law, with 75 percent of respondents saying he is doing a poor job as president.
Suk-Yeol came into power by the slimmest margins in March 2022 as a hardline conservative, remaining a divisive victory that set the tone for now. He tapped into cohorts and segments of disenfranchised young men, who were dissatisfied with the policy of the previous administration under the banner of gender equality that they argued were giving women a free pass.
Suk-Yeol’s approval rating has steadily fallen since he came to power, with voters pointing out the lack of communication and worsening economic issues as well as controversy surrounding the first lady.
Suk Yeol has since been at a tug of war with the parliament and struggled to implement his agenda amidst the opposition-controlled parliament.
Most recently, he was forced into accepting a watered down budget, where the opposition slashed around 4.1 trillion won ($4.4 billion) from the government's proposed 677 trillion won budget plan.
The reserve fund was cut, along with activity budgets for the prosecution, police and the state audit agency, and most significantly, the president’s office.
The Democratic Party also voted to impeach several of the country's top prosecutors including the head of the audit agency for failing to investigate the first lady.
In declaring martial law, he justified his decision by citing North Korean threats and believes the opposition is too soft on Pyongyang.
Under his watch, relations between the neighbours have further plunged, where Pyongyang has been firing ballistic missiles, and has been upping the psychological warfare by sending rubbish-filled balloons across the border, playing loud disturbing noises towards border villages, and has also charting new frontiers by sending troops to help Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
By using the increased threats from Pyongyang and in accusing the opposition of sympathising with North Korea and paralysing the government with anti-state activities, the decision to impose the short lived martial law proved to backfire not only on Suk Yeol, but also in dragging the People Power Party further into a spiralling chaos of increased public discontent, distrust and plunging level of confidence in the government.
This fuels a lose-lose situation for South Korea, as both the disjointed and fragmented political system and a fed up public on the power play by the political elites, all of which would create a new opening for Pyongyang to have a greater leverage and chips in winning the mind game and capitalising on its long held propaganda of denouncing its southern neighbour’s capitalist and messy democratic system.
However, not all is rosy for Pyongyang as it faces a renewed wave of optimism and openness from the masses of South Korea, as reflected in the recent poll where more are increasingly open to the country going nuke as the ultimate fallback option of deterrence, facing new wariness of the level of support in the future from the West.
The South Korean public has embraced a new opening of possibilities as opposed to previous conventional perspectives, on how best to defend the country and relying less on the goodwill of external support.
It remains to be seen how much this new political turmoil and the toying of the idea of embracing nuclear will go down in the halls of the policymaking arena in Washington and Tokyo and with the future prospects of the Camp David Pact among the three powers.
The incoming Trump administration and the underlying uncertainties on the pledge of support also fuel the new wave of independent defence support on its own for Seoul.
In a similar security setting with Japan, South Korea is facing one of its most significant security fears and vulnerabilities in decades, and with renewed Pyongyang threat, it continues to seek and outward expansion of defence and security friendhsoring, beyond traditional reliance on the US and Japan as the main security assurance and partner.
Even with existing security mechanisms including the Camp David pact and renewed positive ties with Japan especially in the realm of defence and security, Seoul is feeling the concerns and wariness especially with the new uncertainties of America’s commitment and the consistent new fearmongering by Pyongyang.
Seoul is trying to increase greater extended deterrence efforts and fallback capacity beyond East Asia alone, and while toying with the idea of supporting Ukraine militarily, he still sees Southeast Asia as critical in a three pronged factor. First, as a vital economic, trade and natural resources support point for Seoul which will be vital in providing it with the needed food, energy and supply chain security which is needed especially during times of conflicts.
Second, the region is also growing as a source of military and defence export factor for South Korea, and the region also is facing renewed threats and instability with the growing thirst and demands for military deterrence and assets.
Third, South Korea is seeing this region as a potential support system in its dealings with threats from Pyongyang, and as also another front providing a distraction and diversion for China in the potential conflict in South China Sea, which will reduce the severity and scale of any potential implications of a direct conflict with China or spin off impact of conflicts between China and the US or with Taiwan.
With the ongoing political dilemma choking Seoul’s highest power arena, the trust and support from neighbouring powers especially Japan and the new friendshoring efforts in Southeast Asia and beyond will be crucial, where the ultimate decision-making by the Trump administration will certainly alter the power game in East Asia.
Beyond the transactional and quid pro quo approaches that are deemed by many as further incentivising Pyongyang and Beijing in their power quests, Trump might just be the much needed game changer in getting the conventional allies to spend more on their own defence but just being moulded and nurtured enough to lessen the burden of Washington without creating a new abyss of an all-out nuclear sabre rattling.
Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek remains the ultimate symbol of the solid Washington presence and deterrence, and is the largest U.S. overseas military base.
Strategic ambiguity remains in play, with a new sense of strategic clarity and a touch of expected and controlled containment policy against any threats of instabilities. The political saga of South Korea will soon pass, and the essence of the core tenets of the resilience of the people and the security and stability of the country and the region will endure.
*Collins Chong Yew Keat is a foreign affairs and strategy analyst and author in University of Malaya.*
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